Foreign stock buying pauses | Oct 22, 2026 / MOF / Weekly Securities Flows

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📊 A walkthrough of the Ministry of Finance weekly securities transactions data (Oct 11-17), released Oct 22.
📉 Foreign net buying of Japanese stocks was -665 (JPY 100m), nearly flat after +35,455 the prior week (revised).
📈 Foreign investors bought +14,542 of Japanese long-term bonds, above 1 trillion yen for a second week.
⚠️ But short-term bonds saw -22,361 of net selling, so bonds as a whole were not clearly bought.
💡 Japanese investors have sold foreign long-term bonds for five straight weeks, though the amounts are shrinking. USD/JPY was flat near 158.
Next: the Oct 18-24 week.

週間フロー全体像：株は一服、債券は長短で分化

Weekly Flows at a Glance: Stocks Pause, Bonds Split

What this report is. Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) publishes weekly data on cross-border securities transactions. Positive figures are net purchases and negative figures net sales. “NonRes” means foreign investors buying Japanese securities; “Res” means Japanese investors buying foreign securities. It is comparable to the US Treasury’s TIC data, but arrives weekly rather than monthly, so it is timelier and noisier.

Latest week (Oct 11-17, released Oct 22; JPY 100 million)

• Foreign net buying of Japanese stocks: -665 (prior week +35,455)
• Japanese long-term bonds: +14,542 (prior +10,802)
• Japanese short-term bonds: -22,361 (prior +8,416)
• Japanese investors’ foreign stocks: +1,283; foreign long-term bonds: -1,616
• USD/JPY reference rate: 158.00 (prior 158.34)

Balanced reading

On the positive side, foreign investors added over 1 trillion yen of long-term Japanese bonds for a second week, following very large equity buying. On the cautious side, equity buying stopped and short-term bonds saw heavy net selling, so bonds as a whole were not clearly bought. The Oct 16 release showed the prior week’s stock buying at +35,215, later revised to +35,455, a reminder that weekly figures can shift slightly.

What to watch

The next release covers Oct 18-24. A return to net equity buying and a further narrowing of Japanese selling of foreign bonds would be confirming signs; one week alone does not establish a trend.

深掘り1：海外勢の日本株買いが一服

Foreign Equity Buying: A Pause After a Big Run

Foreign investors’ net purchases of Japanese stocks went from +35,455 (JPY 100m) in the week of Oct 4-10 to -665 in Oct 11-17. Some context:

• The series is volatile. Over the past year the largest net buying was +39,413 (Apr 5-11) and the largest net selling was -49,425 (Sep 13-19).
• Summing the last five weeks gives roughly +3,800, so the October buying about offset the mid-September selling (our calculation).
• In April, after three straight weeks above 2 trillion yen, the next week still showed +8,117. A slowdown has not always meant a reversal.

Two readings

Constructive: The selling is small, and the prior two weeks included the second-largest buying week of the past year (+35,455). This looks like a pause.
Cautious: One small negative print cannot distinguish a pause from the start of net selling, and the MOF series can be revised.

Comparison and context

The US Treasury’s TIC data arrives monthly with a lag. Japan’s weekly series lets investors track foreign flows into Japanese equities in near real time, though weekly contract-based figures are inherently noisy. The source does not state any driver, so we avoid attributing the move to a single cause such as the yen level, earnings or policy.

What to watch

The Oct 18-24 print: does net buying resume? Look at multi-week sums rather than a single week.

深掘り2：債券は中長期の買いと短期の売りが同時に

Bonds: Long-Term Buying and Short-Term Selling at the Same Time

Long-term JGBs: three straight weeks of rising net buying

Foreign net purchases of Japanese long-term bonds rose from +6,081 (Sep 27-Oct 3) to +10,802 (Oct 4-10) and +14,542 (Oct 11-17), in JPY 100m. This week’s figure is the sixth largest in the past year. The five larger weeks were +23,762 (Mar 29-Apr 4), +22,402 (Sep 6-12), +20,811 (Jan 25-31), +18,829 (Feb 15-21) and +14,657 (Jan 11-17).

Short-term bonds went the other way

Short-term flows swing sharply: -32,672 (Sep 20-26), -2,385 (Sep 27-Oct 3), +8,416 (Oct 4-10), then -22,361. The one-year range runs from +35,949 (Jan 4-10) to -44,514 (Dec 21-27). Short-term instruments include money-market type securities, so these figures can reflect liquidity management as well as views on Japan.

Combined picture (our calculation)

• Prior week: about +19,200 across long and short
• This week: about -7,800 across long and short

The sign flips depending on whether short-term bonds are included.

Two readings

Constructive: Rising long-term buying for three weeks suggests continued demand for Japanese duration.
Cautious: Short-term selling was larger, and these short-term flows are noisy, so a single week is hard to interpret.

Comparison and watch points

The MOF series is a flow measure, unlike holdings data in the US TIC report. The source does not give reasons for the flows. Watch whether long-term net buying persists in the Oct 18-24 data.

質疑で深める：為替と日本勢の動き、次の注目点

Japanese Investors: Foreign Bond Selling Shrinks but Persists

Residents’ net purchases of foreign long-term bonds (JPY 100m)

• Sep 13-19: -19,049
• Sep 20-26: -6,823
• Sep 27-Oct 3: -3,447
• Oct 4-10: -3,399
• Oct 11-17: -1,616

That is five straight weeks of net selling, with the amount falling every week.

Other lines

• Foreign stocks: +13,286 (Sep 27-Oct 3), -7,607 (Oct 4-10), +1,283 (latest), i.e. no stable direction.
• Foreign short-term bonds: -1,569 (prior +703).

The yen backdrop

The weekly reference rate was 153.71 (Sep 6-12), 156.87 (Sep 13-19), 157.81 (Sep 27-Oct 3), 158.34 (Oct 4-10) and 158.00 (latest). Japanese selling of foreign bonds overlapped with the yen’s move back toward 158, but the data alone cannot establish causation, and the source offers no explanation.

Two readings

Constructive: The shrinking amounts suggest selling pressure on foreign bonds may be easing.
Cautious: All five weeks were net selling, and foreign equity buying was small, so there is no evidence yet that Japanese investors have resumed building overseas positions.

Context and watch points

For global investors, Japanese residents are among the largest holders of foreign securities, which is why this line is closely followed alongside foreign buying of Japanese assets. The next release covers Oct 18-24: does foreign long-term bond selling turn to buying, and does foreign net buying of Japanese stocks return?