CPI cools to 0.4%, core steady | Nov 10, 2026 / BLS / CPI Oct

📊 The BLS reported on Nov 10 that October CPI rose 0.4% m/m (seasonally adjusted), slower than September’s 0.6%.
⛽ Energy rose 0.7% after 5.2% in September, and gasoline’s contribution to the headline shrank sharply.
🏠 Core CPI rose 0.3% for a third straight month. Shelter made up over 30% of the gain, while used cars fell 1.2%.
⚠️ Because October 2025 data were not collected, most 12-month changes were not published this time.
💡 The November CPI is scheduled for Dec 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

10月の米CPI：鈍化もコアは3か月連続+0.3%

What this report is

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS, part of the Department of Labor) tracks price changes for a basket of goods and services bought by urban consumers. It is read closely because the Federal Reserve’s 2% target is defined on the PCE price index, and CPI is a key input into that picture.

Key readings (Oct 2026, seasonally adjusted, m/m)

• Headline: +0.4% (Sep +0.6%)
• Core (ex food and energy): +0.3%, the third straight month at that pace
• Energy: +0.7% (Sep +5.2%) | Food: +0.5% (Sep 0.0%)

Data quirk

BLS did not collect October 2025 data because of a lapse in appropriations, so many 12-month changes cannot be published. The latest headline annual rate is still September’s 3.7% (core 2.6%).

International comparison

Japan’s headline CPI is typically quoted year over year, whereas U.S. markets focus on the seasonally adjusted monthly change alongside the annual rate. That makes the missing annual figure this month more notable for U.S. readers.

Market angle

The release contains no policy view. Participants typically watch core momentum, shelter and services ex-shelter. This describes what is monitored, not a forecast.

エネルギーの急騰は一服：ガソリンの寄与が縮小

Energy under the hood

The BLS energy index covers motor fuel, fuel oil, electricity and piped natural gas. In October it rose 0.7% seasonally adjusted after 5.2% in September. Gasoline’s seasonally adjusted gain was 1.0% (September 9.1%), yet the unadjusted gasoline index fell 0.7%, a reminder that seasonal factors can flip the sign of a small move.

Contribution matters

BLS’s contribution table shows gasoline added about 0.337 percentage points to the September headline but only 0.042 in October. Electricity (+0.9% s.a.) added 0.023 points, while natural gas (-0.8%) subtracted 0.006.

Year-over-year context

Gasoline remains +37.4% on a 12-month basis, one of the few annual figures BLS could publish for October. The most recent month with a larger annual gain was May at +40.5%.

International comparison

U.S. gasoline carries a much larger weight in CPI (about 4%) than in many economies with heavier fuel taxes, so crude swings pass through faster to the American headline than to, for example, Japan’s CPI.

Market implications

The fading contribution lowers the energy-driven component of the headline, but the data do not show the earlier spike reversing. Watchers will look at whether electricity strength persists.

コアの中身：住居費・サービスと中古車の綱引き

Core inflation: breadth versus used cars

Core CPI (all items less food and energy) rose 0.3% in October, matching August and September. Within it, services less energy services rose 0.3% and core goods 0.2%.

Shelter

Shelter, about 35% of the CPI basket, rose 0.3% after 0.4%. Owners’ equivalent rent (an imputed measure of what homeowners would pay to rent their home, by far the largest component) rose 0.3% and rent of primary residence 0.2%. The swing in the September figure was largely lodging away from home, which jumped 2.0% then rose 0.6%.

Beyond shelter

Services excluding rent of shelter rose 0.5%, the largest since May. Motor vehicle insurance climbed 0.7% (September 0.1%), hospital services 0.8%, and recreation services 0.9%. Airline fares rose 0.4% after 1.2%.

The used-car offset

Used cars and trucks fell 1.2% (unadjusted -2.0%). Excluding food, shelter, energy and used cars, the index rose 0.4%, versus 0.3% before removing used cars.

International comparison

Unlike Japan, where rents move slowly, U.S. shelter inflation is closely watched because it is large and persistent; this month’s rent and owners’ equivalent rent figures look steady rather than accelerating.

Takeaway

Breadth in services is a firming signal, the used-car decline a softening one. One month is not a trend.

Q&A：勢い・家計の実感・水準感

Food and the item-level picture

Food rose 0.5% seasonally adjusted after 0.0% in September. Food at home gained 0.4% (largest since April’s 0.7%) and food away from home 0.5% (largest since December’s 0.7%). Four of the six major grocery groups rose, nonalcoholic beverages fell 0.3% and cereals and bakery was flat.

Notable items

Beef +0.9% (after -1.0%), lettuce +7.9%, while coffee fell 3.6%, the biggest monthly decline in that series on record. Milk fell 0.3%.

Why the annual figure is missing

BLS could not collect October 2025 prices because of a lapse in appropriations. Annual changes for October 2026 are therefore unavailable for most indexes. Only a few, such as gasoline (+37.4%), used cars (-3.3%), new vehicles (+0.7%) and postage (+13.3%), have a figure.

Regional detail

Regional indexes (unadjusted, versus August) show the Midwest +1.1% and the South +0.6%. BLS cautions that area indexes are noisier because of small samples.

Market angle

The report makes no statement on Federal Reserve policy. Common watch-points are core momentum, services excluding shelter and the energy contribution; these are monitoring items, not predictions. Next release: November CPI on December 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET.